Ominous messages are reaching the Maximos Mansion from pollsters and analysts, not only regarding the stagnation observed in the governing party's polling numbers, but also concerning the potential percentages that parties to the right of New Democracy could receive, such as Antonis Samaras and "Symmachia Ellinon" party supported by Ilias Kasidiaris. Specifically regarding "Symmachia Ellinon", the noose around the Maximos Mansion is tightening, as this specific party is beginning to "hit" double-digit figures in the polls, demonstrating clear momentum. According to a top Greek pollster close to the government: "Kasidiaris took us by surprise; he could get over 10%, there is an unbelievable wave of support behind him."
First preference among young voters
Indeed, there are qualitative characteristics that are truly shocking, as various polls show the party supported by Ilias Kasidiaris coming in first among young voters aged 17 to 25, an indicator of the major trend building in society—a trend that the government had not properly factored in. Now, Ilias Kasidiaris is becoming a lead story in newspapers, dominating foreign media, and attracting a diverse audience. This is undoubtedly a massive antisystemic wave, which was previously attached to other right-wing parties (Velopoulos, Latinopoulou, Karystianou) as well as parties on the left.
Kasidiaris will not run as an MP, but can support any party he chooses
The question is critical and stands as follows: What does the Maximos Mansion do about this unpredictable momentum building around "Symmachia Ellinon"? The dilemma is significant, as it is becoming clear that legal grounds to ban a party simply supported by I. Kasidiaris do not exist and hold no weight. Kasidiaris will not run as a parliamentary candidate and will have no organizational connection to "Symmachia Ellinon"... In other words, if he decided to support another party, what would happen? Would that other party be banned as well? And what is also becoming apparent is that he is undercutting the momentum of A. Samaras—something the Prime Minister's close aides view in a favorable light.
Banning the party would be a fatal decision – Samaras will soar
However, if panic-driven thinking prevails and K. Mitsotakis is persuaded to ban "Symmachia Ellinon", then Ilias Kasidiaris, who commands personal appeal, could urge all voters to back a figure who can cause real damage to New Democracy. And that figure is Antonis Samaras. We realize this sounds wild. Samaras was the one who prosecuted Golden Dawn. Yet, if "ban him to keep him quiet" logic takes over, then Kasidiaris too will consider that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," and we could see Samaras's party—which pollsters currently place at 8–10%—soaring in support and causing a massive rift inside ND. And a rift inside ND could oust Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself. That is why the messages arriving at the Maximos Mansion boil down to this very dilemma: "Either you let the party stand, or you ban it and your power comes to an end..."
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